Food inflation remains stubbornly high in the U.S.

Food inflation has been one of the main drivers of inflation in the United States and other countries. Food prices started to increase in mid-2021, as higher distribution costs, labor shortages, commodity price increases, and persistent shortages affected the sector. In 2022, this trend was exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, with food inflation increasing in developing countries first, and more recently in developed economies.

The pace at which food prices rise matters not just because it directly impacts household budgets, especially for those at the lower end of the income distribution, but also because the visibility of food price changes helps to shape the public’s expectations of inflation which itself can contribute to higher inflation

“Many uncertainties remain, including high fertilizer prices that can impact future production prospects and farmers’ livelihoods, a bleak global economic outlook, and currency movements, all of which pose serious strains for global food security,” FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said in a press release.

The FAO food price index, which tracks the monthly change in the global prices of a basket of food commodities, fell 8.6% in July from the month before. In June, the index fell just 2.3% month on month. However, the index in July was still 13.1% higher than July 2021.

The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents expect inflation to run at a 6.2% pace over the next year and a 3.2% rate for the next three years.

While those numbers are still very high by historical standards, they mark a big drop-off from the respective 6.8% and 3.6% results from the June survey.

Through June, food prices rose 10.4% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are still expected to climb 6.7% over the next 12 months, but that’s a decline from the June survey of 2.5 percentage points, the biggest fall in a data series going back to June 2013.

Economists have forecast that Wednesday’s inflation report will show that consumer prices rose 0.2% from June to July, according to FactSet. That would mark a steep drop from the 1.3% jump from May to June.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed needs to see a series of declining monthly core inflation readings before it would be considering pausing its interest rate increases. Though the Fed more closely tracks a different inflation measure, it also monitors the figures in Wednesday’s report, known as the consumer price index. 

We have always emphasized the importance of having a good website for your company because it can act as your best tool for marketing and sales. A poorly designed website can repulse people from your business and can cause you to lose customers before you even have them. Get in touch with HyperEffects to work on creating, enhancing, and making the website of your company more user-friendly.