Recessions can happen for various reasons, and they are typically associated with rising unemployment and falling household spending.

Over the past century, there have been a range of causes of UK recessions. For example, the deep deflation following the end of WW1 resulted in the depression of the early 1920s. The Great Depression of the early 1930s saw a sharp collapse in UK exports.

The early 1970s recessions were driven by an oil shock and industrial disputes. Meanwhile, the recession of the early 1980s stemmed from high inflation and interest rates. The early 1990s recession was sparked by high interest rates, falling house prices, an overvalued exchange rate and spill overs from the US savings and loan crisis. Finally, the recession of the Global Financial Crisis was due to high interest rates, alongside excesses and imbalances in the banking and the real estate sectors.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) became one of the first forecasters to predict a recession in the second half of this year, though its modelling showed it would be a modest affair such that the term stagnation was still appropriate.

After the official growth figures for the first quarter came in on Thursday below expectations at 0.8%, when the average forecast by City economists was 1%, the talk is no longer about whether there will be a recession, but how deep it will be.

The monthly figure for March GDP growth was negative, at -0.1%, indicating that economic activity had slumped since January’s 1% increase and a recession could be on its way at an even faster pace. Never mind waiting for the autumn, the periods covering the spring and summer could be negative.

After a weaker-than-expected growth performance in February, and with the inflation rate reaching the highest levels since 1992 last month, City forecasters said UK GDP was now on track to grow by about 1% in the first quarter of 2022 before slipping into reverse this summer.

Analysts said activity would be reduced by an extra bank holiday for the Queen’s platinum jubilee in June, as public holidays usually lead to a drop in overall economic output. The return to lower rates of activity in the health sector after a winter rush to vaccinate people against Covid-19, as well as households reining in their spending amid the soaring cost of living, are also expected to weigh on growth.

Economists said the double blow from slowing post-lockdown growth and rising living costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a recession.

The Bank of England had raised rates four times since December to try to counter inflation and last week it increased them a further 0.25 per cent to 1 per cent.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey warned that the economy will “slow sharply” due to soaring energy prices eroding households’ spending power.

Inflation will peak at just over 10 per cent in the final months of this year, driven by the cap on energy bills rising 40 per cent in October to account for elevated wholesale gas prices caused by the war in Ukraine.

That would be the quickest price acceleration since the early 1980s and five times more than Threadneedle Street’s two per cent target.

In response to accelerating prices, the Bank voted unanimously to hike rates 25 basis points to a 13-year high of one per cent. Some rate setters favoured a steeper rise.

An expected pull back in consumer spending in response to living standards eroding at one of the fastest rates since records began in the mid-1960s prompted the gloomy conclusions.