The CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index hit an all-time low in the third quarter of 2022, with President Biden’s approval hitting an all-time low as well.
More than three-quarters (77%) of small business owners expect inflation to continue to rise and only about one-quarter (26%) have faith in Federal Reserve policy.
The majority of small business owners (57%) taking part in the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey for Q3 2022 think the recession has already begun, while another 14% predict recession before the end of the year.
As the Fed hikes interest rates to cool demand in the economy, more than half of small business owners say the recession has already begun, and Main Street’s sales outlook took a big hit, the biggest contributor to the new all-time low in confidence
U.S. economic activity contracted for the second-consecutive quarter in Q2 after unexpectedly falling 1.6% during the first quarter, the first negative reading since the second quarter of 2020, fueling the recession debate among strategists
July’s employment data showed a knockout 528,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy last month. Headline payroll growth is calculated with the BLS’ establishment survey. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a more moderate increase of 179,000 in July.
S&P Global Ratings sees a roughly 45% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.
“Whether the US can avoid a recession is a toss-up,” Beth Ann Bovino, S&P’s US chief economist, wrote in a report Wednesday.
US markets have ripped higher since last week’s Fed meeting as investors seized on potential hints from Powell that the central bank may soon be able to slow the pace of its rate hikes.
Stocks have continued to rally despite a flurry of comments this week from current Fed officials signaling the war on inflation is nowhere near over.
The U.S. labor market as measured by the employment count has held up especially strongly in 2022 relative to past recessions, and a broad set of indicators suggests continued labor market tightness through the first half of the year.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said last week that second-quarter GDP fell 0.9% as consumers and businesses pulled back on their spending due to high inflation.
This represented the second-straight quarter of economic contraction after GDP in the first quarter declined by 1.6%, a pattern that is seen by some as an unofficial recession indicator.
Top economists have argued against the idea that a recession is looming by pointing to measures of employment and incomes that remain very solid.
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