A profit warning by WalMart, its second in the last two-and-half months, that led to a 10 percent slump in its stock price, is sending shivers down the spine of global retailers.
The company’s major rivals in the US, Target, Costco and Home Depot, along with e-commerce major Amazon, all saw their shares drop as anxiety mounted for the sector.
The biggest private U.S. employer said its annual profit could fall by as much as 13%, adding that it would cut prices of clothing and general merchandise more aggressively to attract shoppers.
“Whether we are in or heading into an overall recession, it’s going to feel like a recession in apparel,” analysts at Citi Research said in a note.
JPMorgan analysts said in a note that the Walmart announcement “represents another data point of increasing consumer softness over the past two months … as consumers buckle under persistent inflationary headwinds and drain reserves built up during COVID.”
Walmart’s updated outlook comes as investors sift through months of conflicting data points. The labor market has remained strong, but consumer sentiment has weakened. Inflation has grown at the fastest pace in decades, yet airports are bustling with summer travelers.
Thousands of Netflix customers have canceled subscriptions, but McDonald’s and Coca-Cola say people have been willing to pay more for burgers and sodas so far.
Other factors have complicated the picture, too. Retailers are lapping a period when shoppers had extra money from stimulus checks and savings from what they typically spent on services like gym memberships, hotels and dining out.
Pandemic-related purchases surged as people sprang for new kitchen gadgets, workout equipment and leisurewear — categories that have now largely fallen from favor.
Walmart is a massive company with $573 billion in sales in its most recent fiscal year. If it is identifying a consumer trend, the same trend is likely to affect all businesses.
Unfortunately for Macy’s investors, that probably means folks are spending less than expected at the clothing retailer.
Macy’s has recovered nicely since the devastation at the initial phase of the pandemic when it was forced to close its stores to in-person shoppers. Revenue fell by 29% in its fiscal 2021 before rebounding by 39.8% in the following year.
Since most companies faced inventory shortages until recently, Macy’s benefited by selling more of its full-price inventory.
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