There are increasing signs that Western unity over the war in Ukraine could be starting to crack as the conflict drags on and leaders face public discontent over rampant inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

There are widespread concerns over how long the war could continue, with some strategists saying it has all the hallmarks of a war of attrition where no side “wins” and the losses and damage inflicted by both sides, over a protracted and prolonged period, are immense.

Russia  continue to make incremental gains in two key eastern provinces. Or the battle lines could harden into a stalemate that drags on for months or years, leading to tremendous casualties on both sides and a slow-rolling crisis that will continue to be a drain on the global economy.

Then there is what officials consider the least likely possibility: Russia could redefine its war aims, announce that it has achieved victory and attempt to engineer a close to the fighting. For now, that scenario appears to be little more than wishful thinking, sources say.

If Russia is able to consolidate some of its gains in the east, US officials increasingly fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin may eventually be able to use that territory as a staging ground to push further into Ukraine.

Russia is on the verge of taking the city, and between 100-200 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day. In the southern Kherson region, Ukraine has made only incremental progress in a counteroffensive against Russian positions. Russian troops have reportedly begun moving toward the northeastern city of Kharkiv again.

Powered by withering Russian artillery and rocket fire, and a marked change in Russian tactics and command, the tide of war is turning against Ukraine — and Kyiv says the only way to turn it back is to get more Western weapons faster.

The first set of economic measures were introduced immediately after the invasion, when it was assumed Ukraine would capitulate within days. That didn’t happen, with the result that sanctions – while still incomplete – have gradually been intensified.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his officials will have to negotiate with Russia “at some point.”

Macron and his German and Italian counterparts (who are all in Kyiv on Thursday) have all called for a cease-fire and for a negotiated end to the war, urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold peace talks with Zelenskyy, to no avail.

On Wednesday, President Joe Biden unveiled the new US arms package, featuring howitzers, ammunition, anti-ship missile systems, and additional rockets for new artillery systems that Ukraine will soon put in the field.

Biden said that he told Zelensky in a phone call Wednesday that “the United States will stand by Ukraine as it defends its democracy and support its sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of unprovoked Russian aggression.”

“The bravery, resilience, and determination of the Ukrainian people continues to inspire the world.”

Fighting in eastern Ukraine is focused on the industrial city of Severodonetsk, and the Russians appear close to consolidating control after weeks of intense battles. 

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